Chaparral, New Mexico 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

406
FXUS64 KEPZ 261717
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
1117 AM MDT Thu Jun 26 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...

 -  Scattered thunderstorms each afternoon and evening, becoming
    more isolated this weekend as coverage decreases. Best chances
    over area mountains. Storms will be capable of heavy rain and
    flooding.

 -  Warmer temperatures over the weekend, lowland highs in the mid
    to upper nineties.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1100 AM MDT Thu Jun 26 2025

Plume of monsoonal moisture that brought much of the area heavy
rainfall this week is making a subtle drift eastward today.
Precipitable water values remain in the 1.0-1.3" range along and
east of the Rio Grande, slightly lower (0.7-0.9") across western
New Mexico. This will likely reflect thunderstorm coverage today
and tomorrow, with 20-30% coverage west and 40-50% coverage east,
with the best chances being over the high terrain. Storms will be
increasingly hit-or-miss today and tomorrow, which makes
forecasting rain chances difficult.

Thunderstorm activity in the lowlands will be mostly driven by
outflows and mesoscale boundary collisions, once again favoring
Otero, Hudspeth, Dona Ana, and El Paso Counties. The main hazard
being heavy rain and flash flooding. Flood risk has decreased
somewhat compared to the past few days due to the more isolated
nature of these storms but also because of lower available
moisture. A few storms may be strong with gusty outflow winds,
blowing dust, and hail.

Broad upper high aloft begins to set in over central New Mexico
this weekend. Further erosion of mid-level moisture profiles and
increased subsidence within the 300-500mb layer will decrease (but
not fully remove) storm chances. Scattered early afternoon storms
over the high terrain (mostly Sacramento Mtns) and low-coverage
(10-20%) isolated lowland storms in the evening.

Temperatures also warm back up this weekend closer to normal for
late June. Lowland highs will return to the upper 90s with the
drier forecast. Looks like El Paso won`t reach triple-digits this
time, thankfully.

A second wave of monsoon moisture is likely to return next week,
leading to an active first week of July and Independence Day.
Pacific shortwave combined with a strong surface high over the
Gulf of America will enhance moisture advection back into New
Mexico and far west Texas beginning next Tuesday. Storm coverage
will become more scattered (30-50%) to numerous (60-80%) headed
into the holiday weekend. GFS and ECMWF are actually both pretty
aggressive with storm chances. Something to keep in mind as folks
plan for the Fourth of July...

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1100 AM MDT Thu Jun 26 2025

VMC this afternoon with skies FEW-SCT130 and CB over mountains.
TSRA beginning around 21Z across S NM and far W TX. Coverage will
be more isolated than past days, with plenty of gaps around CB.
Storm coverage around 20-30% around terminals this evening. Left
PROB30 mention of TS in TAFs, but will amend with more confident
wordage if necessary.

Surface winds 130-160 at 04-08 knots today, stronger gusts near
TSRA. Rain chances diminish after sunset, with skies SCT120 BKN200
overnight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1100 AM MDT Thu Jun 26 2025

Low fire danger rest of the week due to increased moisture and
recent wetting rain. Light winds today with Fair smoke
ventilation. Min RH 20-30% across GNF, higher over LNF. Best
chances for storms over the forests between 12PM-4PM each
afternoon. Main concerns will be burn scar flash flooding and
erratic wind gusts.

Decreasing coverage in storms this weekend due to high pressure
aloft of drier conditions. GNF will become mostly dry (Min RH
down to 15-20%) with scattered afternoon thunderstorms limited to
LNF. Fire danger becoming Elevated again over GNF by Sunday. No
strong winds expected outside of thunderstorm outflows.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  72  91  71  95 /  50  40  30  20
Sierra Blanca            64  85  64  88 /  50  70  40  50
Las Cruces               65  88  65  92 /  40  30  30  10
Alamogordo               65  88  65  93 /  30  50  30  20
Cloudcroft               48  66  49  70 /  20  60  30  50
Truth or Consequences    67  91  67  94 /  20  30  20  10
Silver City              59  85  61  88 /  30  40  20  20
Deming                   66  92  66  96 /  40  30  30  10
Lordsburg                64  92  65  95 /  30  30  20  10
West El Paso Metro       72  88  72  93 /  50  40  40  20
Dell City                67  88  67  92 /  40  50  20  30
Fort Hancock             70  91  70  94 /  50  60  40  40
Loma Linda               64  82  65  86 /  40  50  30  20
Fabens                   69  91  69  94 /  40  50  30  20
Santa Teresa             69  88  69  92 /  50  40  40  10
White Sands HQ           70  88  71  93 /  40  40  30  20
Jornada Range            64  88  64  92 /  40  30  30  10
Hatch                    65  91  66  95 /  40  30  30  10
Columbus                 68  91  69  95 /  50  30  40  10
Orogrande                67  86  66  91 /  30  40  30  20
Mayhill                  53  77  54  80 /  30  70  20  60
Mescalero                52  77  53  81 /  30  60  20  40
Timberon                 51  73  51  78 /  30  60  30  40
Winston                  53  83  53  86 /  20  40  10  20
Hillsboro                61  88  61  93 /  30  40  20  20
Spaceport                62  88  62  93 /  30  30  20  10
Lake Roberts             56  87  57  90 /  30  40  20  20
Hurley                   60  87  61  91 /  30  40  20  10
Cliff                    61  93  62  97 /  20  30  10  10
Mule Creek               59  91  60  93 /  20  20  10  10
Faywood                  62  86  63  89 /  30  40  30  20
Animas                   64  93  66  96 /  30  40  20  10
Hachita                  62  91  64  93 /  40  40  40  10
Antelope Wells           64  90  64  93 /  40  40  40  20
Cloverdale               63  88  64  91 /  30  40  30  10

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...Flood Watch until 9 PM MDT this evening for East Slopes
     Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet-Sacramento Mountains
     Above 7500 Feet-West Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500
     Feet.

&&

$$

FORECASTER...30-Dennhardt