Chaparral, New Mexico 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

697
FXUS64 KEPZ 220528
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
1028 PM MST Fri Feb 21 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1027 PM MST Fri Feb 21 2025

  - Temperatures will warm to well above normal early next week,
    hitting their peak on Tuesday

  - Very dry conditions will prevail with single digit relative
    humidity expected starting Sunday and into next week.

  - Fire weather conditions will be our primary focus, with warm,
    dry, and unstable conditions, combining with record dry late
    winter fuels to increase Fire Danger. However, the lack of
    strong winds will keep the region from reaching Critical
    levels.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 214 PM MST Fri Feb 21 2025

As an upper low traverses the Great Plains, trailing energy will
attempt to pinch off near the southernmost extent of the Great
Basin, morphing into a weak cutoff low tonight. Minimum
temperatures will trend slightly warmer than the previous day`s
readings. The low swings into NM on Saturday, bringing little in
the ways of impacts to sensible weather, save for typical
afternoon breeziness and some transient high clouds. Another weak
trough follows in the wake of the Saturday disturbance, with
similar outcomes. Pressure heights rise quickly with its
departure, bringing a gradual warming trend through midweek
amongst dry conditions. Heat will hit its peak on Tuesday, with
daytime highs reaching 10F to 18F above climatological averages
areawide. Subtle variations on the upper level pattern will result
in slight cooling on Thursday, followed by another stark warmup
on Friday. All through the week, conditions will remain brutally
dry, with relative humidity minimums in the single digits.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1027 PM MST Fri Feb 21 2025

A fair weather pattern continues to keep conditions VFR for all
terminals, through the period. A passing upper trough is passing
too far north, and too dry, for any precipitation production. We
will continue to see FEW-SCT periods of high level clouds, with
minimal mid level clouds through the overnight, and through the
morning, then clearing aft 18Z...but all CIGs will be AOA 250.
Winds generally light and variable, with speeds averaging in the
3-8kt range.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 214 PM MST Fri Feb 21 2025

No critical fire weather conditions are expected during the forecast
period, however, elevated fire weather conditions will be possible
due to very low humidity. A drying trend will take minimum RH in the
low double digits and teens on Saturday into a prolonged stretch
of single digit RH values. The trend will take hold on Sunday and
last through a majority of the week before improving slightly on
Thursday. Winds will be generally light, helping to limit
critical fire weather conditions, but the very dry conditions will
create widespread elevated to near-critical fire weather
conditions for much of the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  34  65  39  73 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            26  62  34  68 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces               31  63  33  71 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               28  62  32  70 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft               25  43  27  48 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences    33  63  34  71 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City              32  60  34  66 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                   30  66  31  73 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                31  66  30  71 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       37  64  41  71 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                23  60  28  71 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             29  68  34  75 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda               28  59  37  65 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                   31  66  36  73 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             32  63  35  71 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           34  63  40  71 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range            27  64  31  71 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                    29  67  31  74 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                 33  66  36  73 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                29  61  33  69 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                  26  56  31  63 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero                26  53  29  60 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                 24  52  28  59 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                  23  58  25  65 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro                31  62  34  70 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport                27  64  30  72 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             25  60  24  67 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                   28  62  30  69 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                    27  68  26  76 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               27  63  28  69 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  32  61  35  68 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                   30  66  32  73 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  28  65  31  71 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           33  67  35  72 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               38  62  38  69 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...14-Bird