Chaparral, New Mexico 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

729
FXUS64 KEPZ 062342
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
442 PM MST Fri Mar 6 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 438 PM MST Fri Mar 6 2026

 - Breezy west winds this afternoon with near critical fire
   danger. Red Flag Warning in effect for the Capitan and
   Sacramento Mountains.

 - Weak cold front arrives from the east Saturday morning, with
   gusty east winds and minimal changes to temperature.

 - Slight rain chances return early next week, with scattered
   rain showers Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1000 AM MST Fri Mar 6 2026

Upper low over the Four Corners today with lee surface low
development across the OK/TX Panhandle. Breezy winds out of the
west for the El Paso area this afternoon, generally in the 15 to
25 mph range. Some stronger gusts around 40 mph will be felt over
the high terrain and along east slopes today. Monitoring for
blowing dust this afternoon, but expecting minimal impacts as
winds aren`t quite strong enough to loft dust. Temperatures today
will be cooler than the past few days, with lowland highs only
reaching the upper 60s/lower 70s. This is right near normal for
early March, however.

Winds will weaken overnight leading to a cool and quiet night. A
cold front spilling down the High Plains tonight will reach the
Rio Grande Valley by Saturday morning. This will lead to a wind
shift, but not much else. Gusty east winds Saturday afternoon,
generally 15 to 20 mph. Minimal changes to temperatures for
Saturday, still near normal for early March.

Strong jet streak on the backside of the upper low currently over
the Four Corners will allow the low to separate away from the
prevailing Polar jet and retrograde off the coast of Baja
California this weekend. This will position our area in a
diffluent, south flow regime. This would normally be favorable for
weekend rain chances, but the slow moistening process will delay
rain chances. Sunday looks mostly dry with increasing cloud
coverage. Light east winds continue.

Upper low begins its approach on Monday, which finally looks to
have enough moisture and forcing available for rain chances.
Scattered (40-60%) rain showers is the forecast for Monday
afternoon through Tuesday, with the best chances favoring
southwest New Mexico. Overall QPF is on the lower side, best
guess being in the 0.10-0.25 range for rain totals. We may also
see a few isolated thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon. Pacific cold
front will also knock temperatures down again for Tuesday.

Wednesday through the rest of next week will be dry with a
warming trend, allowing temperatures to run above normal for
several days. No significant winds expected at least through next
weekend, either.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 438 PM MST Fri Mar 6 2026

VFR conditions expected for the next 24 hours. Our current low
end gusty winds will continue to drop off over the next few hours
and we will see light north or northwest winds tonight. A weak
cold front will move across the region early on Saturday which
will swing our surface winds around to the east and eventually to
the southeast by late morning. We will see another round of low
end gusty winds Saturday afternoon but this time from the east or
southeast. Our skies will be unlimited tonight, with only some off
and on high clouds on Saturday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1000 AM MST Fri Mar 6 2026

Near Critical Fire Danger today with breezy west winds 15 to 25
mph and Min RH 10-15%. Red Flag Warning in effect for
Capitan/Sacramento Mountains until 7 PM where conditions are
meeting Critical thresholds for a few hours this afternoon.

Cold front arrives out of the northeast Saturday morning,
shifting winds 180 degrees from today. East winds 10 to 20 mph
tomorrow afternoon with gusty conditions over mountain ridges and
west slopes. Ventilation remains Good to Very Good. Higher
moisture with Min RH 15-25% will lead to Elevated Fire Danger. No
Red Flags expected tomorrow.

Low Fire Danger on Sunday due to light winds and higher moisture.
Scattered rain showers Monday/Tuesday will also keep fire danger
low and may provide some wetting rains over the local forests.
Winds becoming breezy out of the west again by Tuesday, but no
fire headlines expected at this time. Dry and warmer conditions
return Wednesday into next weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  43  72  45  74 /   0   0   0  10
Sierra Blanca            40  66  40  69 /   0   0  20  20
Las Cruces               34  68  38  71 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               34  68  36  71 /   0   0   0  10
Cloudcroft               24  45  28  50 /   0   0   0  10
Truth or Consequences    35  65  38  70 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City              30  59  37  66 /   0   0   0  10
Deming                   33  69  39  73 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                30  65  42  71 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       45  71  47  73 /   0   0   0  10
Dell City                37  68  36  72 /   0   0   0  10
Fort Hancock             43  76  43  77 /   0   0  10  10
Loma Linda               41  63  41  68 /   0   0   0  10
Fabens                   42  74  45  76 /   0   0  10  10
Santa Teresa             39  69  41  72 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           42  68  44  72 /   0   0   0  10
Jornada Range            31  68  35  71 /   0   0   0  10
Hatch                    32  70  35  74 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                 37  71  43  74 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                37  66  38  71 /   0   0   0  10
Mayhill                  27  55  30  63 /   0   0   0  10
Mescalero                26  56  30  62 /   0   0   0  10
Timberon                 31  54  33  59 /   0   0   0  10
Winston                  22  55  27  63 /   0   0   0  10
Hillsboro                33  63  38  68 /   0   0   0  10
Spaceport                30  65  33  70 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             25  58  31  66 /   0   0   0  10
Hurley                   28  63  35  67 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                    26  66  33  74 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               27  63  34  70 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  33  61  39  67 /   0   0   0  10
Animas                   32  68  39  72 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  32  67  39  71 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           34  68  38  72 /   0  10  10  10
Cloverdale               35  64  42  68 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM MST this evening for Capitan and
     Sacramento Mountains/Lincoln NF/LNZ.

&&

$$

FORECASTER...15-Brice